Who are Uzbekistan’s allies, and who could join in the future?

Primarily, it should be noted that there is no legal definition of “alliance.” Alliance relations are a purely political concept with political content and essence. States that establish “alliance” relations assign meaning to the term based on their political traditions, needs, and perspectives. Therefore, “alliance” between states may not always mean the same thing in terms of meaning, content, tone, and cooperation.

Alliance relations represent the highest level of interstate relations. When states establish alliance relations, it means that, regardless of any political or geostrategic turbulence, these states should trust and rely on one another. They cannot engage in war with each other, conflicts and disputes should not escalate, and, in case of any issues, these problems should be resolved with mutual respect and in a spirit of friendship. Furthermore, "alliance" conveys the political meaning that states may rely on each other in difficult situations.

Since Uzbekistan gained independence in 1991, it has entered into alliance relations with four countries over the past 34 years.

During Uzbekistan’s first administration, the country entered into an alliance agreement with only one state — the Russian Federation. This agreement was signed in November 2005. The alliance with Russia has a complex political and geostrategic context. After the events in Andijan in May 2005, Western states and the European Union called for an international investigation into the events. In this context, Uzbekistan strengthened its ties with China and Russia, and, by November 14, an alliance agreement was signed in Moscow. The alliance with Russia was the only alliance established during President Karimov’s administration.

In 2016, after the change in leadership, Uzbekistan began interpreting the concept of “alliance” quite differently. This term gained a strategic meaning rather than a tactical one, and the country started viewing it through the lens of regional and Turkic identity.

During President Mirziyoyev’s rule, Uzbekistan established alliance relations with three countries: two of which are neighboring states, and the third is a historically connected nation in the region.

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan established alliance relations on December 22, 2022. It is important to note that in February 2022, the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, leading to a major war. This war clearly impacted the relations between the Central Asian states as well. When Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan entered into alliance relations, they agreed to support each other in the face of external threats and challenges. In other words, the two states emphasized their shared responsibility for the region’s future and agreed not to secretly or openly oppose each other’s interests or projects, particularly given the potential involvement of external forces.

In 2024, Uzbekistan established alliance relations with two more countries. In February, it signed an agreement with Tajikistan, and in August, an alliance agreement was signed with Azerbaijan.

If we examine the past, during the first administration, Uzbekistan’s relations with both Russia and neighboring countries like Kazakhstan and Tajikistan were often tense and, at times, quite cold. However, the second administration was able to create an entirely new tone in foreign policy, particularly in relations with neighboring states. It did not allow coldness to dominate due to existing issues, but instead cultivated a spirit of friendship and trust in seeking opportunities. At the same time, it achieved this result without compromising national interests.

Tajikistan and the Tajik people are considered the closest to Uzbekistan and the Uzbek people. If we consider linguistic and cultural proximity, the closest nation to the Uzbeks is the Uighurs, while in terms of mentality, it is the Tajiks.

In the Caucasus region, there are three countries, and only one of them is Turkic — Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan serves as a bridge state, connecting Central Asia, or historically Turkestan, to Turkey.

Hence, which countries could Uzbekistan establish alliances with in the future? It seems that, in the coming years, it is only a matter of time before Uzbekistan forms an alliance with Turkey, and possibly with its neighboring Kyrgyzstan as well. Currently, Turkmenistan follows a neutral foreign policy and is not very active in interstate and multilateral organizations. However, if Turkmenistan opts to become more geopolitically active rather than maintaining its neutrality, forming an alliance with this country could be an important step for Uzbekistan's regional policy, Central Asian integration, and the unity of historical Turkestan.

The international system is evolving, with new forms of interstate relations taking shape. International law has weakened significantly, and powerful states are developing new rules to assert their will. Against this backdrop, an alliance between Uzbekistan and Turkey would be of immense importance for the security and stability of both states, as well as for the political, geostrategic, and military strength of Central Asia.

Kamoliddin Rabbimov,
Political Scientist