Inflation fears soar to two-year peak in Uzbekistan 

Inflation expectations surged significantly in February among both the general population and business community, according to the Central Bank.

The average anticipated price increase over the next 12 months, as reported by citizens, reached 15.3%, marking the highest level since February 2023. The median forecast also climbed to 13.2%, a threshold not seen since that time.

Residents of Tashkent and the Tashkent region projected the steepest inflation rates at 19% and 18%, respectively, followed by Fergana region at 17.5%. More optimistic outlooks came from Syrdarya (12.4%), Navoi (12.5%), and Jizzakh (13.2%) regions.

Among industries, the highest inflation forecasts were reported by workers in manufacturing (17.1%), transportation (16.6%), and education (16.4%). Lower expectations were observed in the food service (13.3%), tourism (13.4%), and agriculture (13.7%) sectors.

Inflation forecasts varied by income level: citizens earning over 15 million UZS monthly anticipated inflation exceeding 20%, while those earning 10–15 million UZS and 7–10 million UZS projected 17.2% and 16.6%, respectively. In contrast, individuals with monthly incomes of 2–3 million UZS expected a 13.8% rise, and those earning 3–4 million UZS foresaw 14.2%.

Utility tariffs emerged as the primary driver of inflation expectations, cited by 63% of respondents, followed by fuel price increases (52%). Currency fluctuations, though still notable at 41%, saw a slight decline in influence. Meanwhile, the impact of monopolies and speculation rose, mentioned by 32% of respondents.

Business inflation expectations, after dipping in January, rebounded sharply. The average forecast reached 13.8%, with a median of 11.2%.

Entrepreneurs in the capital projected the highest price increases at 17.8%, followed by those in Fergana (15.1%) and Tashkent region (14.9%). The lowest estimates came from Surkhandarya (12%), Karakalpakstan, and Syrdarya (12.1%).

Among business sectors, construction led with the highest expectations at 15%, followed by manufacturing (14.6%) and craftsmanship (14.2%). Tourism and IT sectors reported notably lower forecasts (12.6%).

Similar to the public, businesses pointed to utility costs (58%), energy expenses (50%), and currency dynamics (43%) as the main factors shaping their outlook. Rising transportation costs were also frequently cited (34%), while tax burdens and raw material costs were less commonly mentioned (27% each).