Without remittances, Uzbekistan’s poverty rate could nearly double – World Bank

The World Bank has presented its report titled "The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia."

The study analyzes migration trends in Europe and Central Asia and their impact on government policies.

"Uzbek migrant flow becomes more diversified"

One-third of the world's total migrants — about 100 million people — reside in Europe and Central Asia. Migration remains a key issue in regional development, driven by income disparities, demographic imbalances, climate change, and armed conflicts worldwide.

In 2020, nearly two-thirds of the four million migrants leaving Kazakhstan went to Russia, while a quarter chose Germany for work.

Migrants from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan exhibit even higher economic dependence on Russia. As of 2023, over 80% of Tajik and Kyrgyz labor migrants were heading to Russia.

However, the flow of Uzbek migrants is more diversified: 57% work in Russia, 15% in Kazakhstan, and 10% in Ukraine.

"Without remittances, Uzbekistan's poverty rate could rise from 9.6% to 16.8%"

Labor migration remains a primary source of income for millions of people in Central Asian countries.

As of 2024, migrant remittances constitute 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP, the highest proportion globally. In Kyrgyzstan, remittances account for 24% of GDP, while in Uzbekistan, they make up 14%.

Migrants from these countries can double or even triple their incomes abroad, significantly improving their families' living standards. For example, in Kyrgyzstan, the poverty rate among households receiving remittances is below 10%, whereas without them, it would exceed 50%.

Estimates suggest that if Uzbekistan did not receive remittances, the national poverty rate could increase from 9.6% to 16.8%.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on migration

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a significant impact on currencies, energy, raw material and food prices, supply chains, and trade relations. These effects have been particularly pronounced in Central Asian countries that are economically linked to Russia and Ukraine.

Given that Russia has historically been a primary migration destination for Central Asia and the Caucasus, this geopolitical shock was expected to significantly affect migration flows, reduce employment opportunities abroad, and decrease remittance inflows to the region.

High-frequency data on countries with high emigration rates to Russia, such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, show that during the first six months of the war, migrant numbers remained stable. However, from September 2022, a sharp decline was observed:

At that time, Russia announced military mobilization, and its economy worsened. Within just one month, the number of migrants from these two countries fell by 15%, and the number of Kyrgyz migrants decreased by 36% in the last three months of 2022.

Temporary migration in Central Asia and gender disparities

Temporary migration, particularly short-term labor migration, is predominantly male-dominated. While Russian census data suggest an almost equal gender distribution among Central Asian migrants, surveys conducted in migrants' home countries contradict this claim.

Research on temporary migration indicates that:

- 80% of Kyrgyz and Tajik migrants are men.

- In Uzbekistan, this figure reaches 90%.

Highly skilled emigration and the situation in Central Asia

Highly skilled emigration is widespread in some small and middle-income European and Central Asian countries. For instance, 45% of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s working-age population and over 30% of Albania’s reside abroad.

In contrast, the rate is much lower in Central Asia:

- In Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, fewer than 5% of highly skilled individuals emigrate.

- Over 95% of Uzbek migrants are low-skilled workers.

This indicates that low-skilled labor migration dominates in Central Asia.

Low-skilled migration brings significant benefits to migrants, their families, and their home countries. The most direct effect is a substantial increase in workers' incomes, leading to higher household earnings and improved welfare, with remittances providing a major financial inflow into these countries.

World Bank recommendations for effective migration management

1. Defining different types of migration for policy development

Policies should distinguish between highly skilled and low-skilled migrants, as well as between those seeking economic opportunities and those forced to leave due to armed conflicts. Migration policies should be based on scientific data and coordinated at both national and regional levels.

2. Enhancing labor competitiveness and human capital development

Countries should integrate migration into broader labor strategies aimed at improving productivity, skill development, and overall economic well-being. National programs should provide training and education opportunities while ensuring that migration aligns with the demands of external labor markets.

3. Developing safe and organized migration mechanisms

Governments should implement migrant registration systems and establish bilateral agreements with host countries to protect migrant workers' rights. Providing migrants with reliable information about employment opportunities abroad is also crucial.

Additionally, home country authorities should ensure that social security contributions and insurance payments for migrant workers can be transferred to host countries, guaranteeing migrants' social protection while working abroad.